IPEA launches book on global trends for next 15 years

The Institute for Applied Economic Research—IPEA, in the original acronym—launched Wednesday (Oct. 14) a book entitled Megatendências Mundiais 2030: o que as entidades e personalidades internacionais pensam sobre o futuro do mundo? (“2030 Global Megatrends: What do organizations and personalities think about the world's future?”, in a literal English translation). The work deals with topics likely to form the framework of the world scenario in the years in such fields as population, geopolitics, science and technology, economy, and environment, and was put together by Elaine Coutinho Marcial, Coordinator at IPEA's Council for Strategic Management, Information, and Documentation.

Cited in the book are former US vice-President and environmental activist Al Gore and Polish sociologist Zygmunt Bauman, whose work addresses the societies' transition from the modern to the post-modern world.

“Many of the problems we face today come as a result of our not having given heed to the long-term future, or our failing to prevent such problems from occurring, or to prepare for them,” she said.

In the environmental arena, for instance, the book notes that the current economic model, coupled with the behavior of citizens and countries, is harmful to the environment, leads to air pollution, deforestation, damage to sea and coastal ecosystems, eventually resulting in general degradation. In the view of the authors, if current consumption patterns do not change and waste generation is not curbed, the present model will keep natural resources scarce in the years.

The study further shows that, as a result of the decreasing birth rate and the rise in life expectancy, populations tend to become older, especially in Asia, and East and South Europe, which has a potentially negative effect on economic growth, as the number of economically active people shrinks. Aging also increases pressure on health care services and social security.

“We're experiencing a moment of great changes. And changes can make us feel a little uncomfortable and insecure about this process. It is actually a moment of great opportunities, but, by keeping ourselves informed, we manage to make good choices and build the country we strive for,” Marcial declared.

The book is available in Portuguese on IPEA's website, here.
 

Translated by Fabrício Ferreira